2026新能源展望：风电、光伏和储能谁领风骚？

Core Insights - The Chinese renewable energy industry has transitioned from rapid expansion to a more complex landscape, focusing on the interplay between wind, solar, and storage technologies under the "dual carbon" goals and new power system frameworks [1] Energy Storage Sector - By 2026, the global energy storage market is expected to reach 438 GWh in new installations, a significant 62% year-on-year increase, with China projected to contribute 250 GWh [2] - The driving logic for domestic energy storage has shifted from mandatory policies to economic incentives, allowing storage to generate independent revenue through market mechanisms [2] - AI's demand for computational power is creating new growth opportunities for energy storage, as data centers require reliable power supply and quality, positioning storage systems as essential infrastructure [2][3] Technological Advancements - Lithium battery prices have stabilized after a period of supply adjustment, with ongoing advancements in technology leading to lower lifecycle costs and the potential commercialization of solid-state batteries by 2026 [3] - The demand for long-duration energy storage solutions is increasing, with various technologies like flow batteries and compressed air storage gaining attention [4] Solar Energy Sector - The global solar market is expected to maintain steady growth, but the industry faces challenges from overcapacity and price pressures, leading to profit difficulties for many companies [5][6] - The growth dynamics are shifting from policy-driven to market-driven, with emerging markets becoming new growth engines while mature markets face integration challenges [7] - Technological innovation is crucial, with next-generation technologies like bifacial and perovskite solar cells showing promise for breaking the current competitive stagnation [7][8] Wind Energy Sector - The offshore wind sector is poised for accelerated project launches and grid connections, with China leading in cumulative installed capacity [8] - Regulatory improvements and policy support are essential for the development of deep-water offshore wind projects, which require significant investment [8][9] Systemic Integration - The future of the energy sector lies in the integration of wind, solar, and storage technologies, moving beyond individual competition to a collaborative ecosystem [10] - Innovative business models that optimize the combination of these technologies will be critical for reducing costs and enhancing system efficiency [11]