一月债市的风险和机会

Core Viewpoint - The bond market weakened in the last week before the holiday, with government bond rates rising while credit bonds strengthened. The expectation is for a recovery in the bond market post-holiday due to regulatory changes and easing bank pressure [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the last week before the holiday, the 10-year and 30-year government bond rates increased by 1.0bps and 4.4bps to 1.85% and 2.27%, respectively, while short-term rates also rose [1][7]. - Credit bonds showed strength, with 3-year and 5-year AAA secondary capital bond rates slightly declining, and the 1-year AAA certificate of deposit rate decreasing by 1.0bps to 1.63% [1][7]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The new public fund fee regulations, which are more lenient than the draft proposal, are expected to alleviate redemption pressure and support the bond market recovery. The final version allows for certain exemptions on redemption fees for long-term holders [1][7]. Group 3: Bank Pressure and Supply - The easing of bank indicator pressures, particularly from large banks, is anticipated to enhance overall allocation strength in the bond market. The Basel framework adjustment will reduce the parallel shift limit from 250bps to 225bps, effective January 1, 2026 [2][9]. - The government bond issuance plan for the first quarter is set at 2.1 trillion, lower than the 2.5 trillion planned for the same period in 2025, but with an accelerated issuance schedule [9][10]. Group 4: Credit and Funding Dynamics - The concentration of credit issuance in January is expected to impact the bond market. The proportion of first-quarter credit issuance has increased from 36.2% in 2020 to an estimated 59.8% in 2025, with January alone potentially accounting for 35% of annual credit [10][14]. - Despite the anticipated surge in credit issuance, current credit demand remains low, indicating that the impact on the bond market may be more rhythmical rather than trend-based [14][15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to recover post-holiday, with smoother recovery anticipated after late January, despite ongoing supply pressures and increased funding demands [15]. - The expectation is that the 10-year government bond may reach new lows in the first half of the year [15].