春季躁动看好成长性板块，关注茅台市场化定价探索

Group 1: Baijiu Industry - iMoutai will start selling its 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai at a regular price of 1499 yuan per bottle from January 1, 2026, marking a significant step towards a market-oriented pricing system and aiming to reclaim channel pricing power [3][8][32] - The first day of sales saw the product sell out in half an hour, indicating strong demand and the effectiveness of the new pricing strategy [3][32] - The baijiu sector is currently at a historical low valuation, presenting strong bottom-fishing opportunities, especially as consumption policies are expected to catalyze growth [3][27] Group 2: Consumer Goods - The Ministry of Commerce announced import restrictions on beef starting January 1, 2026, which will benefit the dairy sector by alleviating low-price pressures in the meat industry and improving the supply-demand dynamics for raw milk [4][28][38] - The recovery of the restaurant chain is anticipated, with a focus on new store formats and customized products from supermarkets, as the supply chain price war has eased since Q4 2025 [4][28] - The dairy price cycle is expected to improve, with November's dairy cow inventory reduction exceeding expectations and rising cattle prices enhancing profitability for upstream farms [4][28][38] Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - The cross-year market trend is characterized by "growth leading, baijiu accumulating strength," with funds favoring sectors like snacks and dairy that show clear growth potential [5][29] - As the annual report forecast period approaches, certain food and beverage companies are expected to outperform due to their differentiated advantages [6][30] - Multiple catalysts in late January are likely to lead to better-than-expected quarterly reports, driven by the upcoming Spring Festival and improved market sentiment [7][31] Group 4: Pricing and Cost Dynamics - The new pricing strategy for iMoutai includes a tiered pricing system and frequent replenishment, which aims to reduce speculation and return products to their consumption attributes [8][33] - The average price of raw milk remained stable at 3.03 yuan/kg in late December, indicating a bottoming out of the milk price cycle [38] - The new season for yeast molasses has seen procurement costs decrease significantly, which may enhance profit margins for related products [39]