2026年: 回顾这25年的融资模式演变, 从纷繁复杂到华山自古一条路

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of infrastructure financing policies in China, highlighting significant shifts in government strategies over the years to balance infrastructure development with debt control and risk management [2]. Development Stage (Early 2000s - 2008) - The development of infrastructure financing began with the China Development Bank's advocacy for developmental finance, reaching its first peak around 2008. Prior to this, local financing platforms were emerging but lacked proper guidance, leading to disorganized growth [3]. - The introduction of the self-balancing concept linked local infrastructure projects with fiscal revenues, resulting in a surge of loans for land reserve, urban village renovation, urbanization, and new rural construction [3]. Control Platform Stage (2010 Onwards) - In response to the growing unmanageable debt from local financing platforms, the State Council issued a notice in 2010 to control new financing from these platforms. This included a classification of debts into three categories based on their repayment sources [4]. Enlightened Channel Stage (2014 Onwards) - By 2014, it became evident that merely controlling financing platforms was ineffective. The State Council introduced policies to promote special bonds and Public-Private Partnerships (PPP), marking the beginning of a new era of project investments amounting to trillions [5]. Blocking Dark Channels Stage (2018-2019) - A series of regulations were implemented in 2018 and 2019 to prohibit new hidden debts and halt the use of land revenue for special bonds and PPP projects. This marked a significant tightening of financing regulations [6]. Precipice of Change (2019-2024) - The period following 2019 has seen a dramatic shift in infrastructure financing, particularly with the decline of the fixed-income model, which relied on government guarantees rather than project revenues for debt repayment [7][8]. Fixed-Income Model Decline - The fixed-income borrowing model, which included local government bonds and PPPs, has faced increasing scrutiny and regulation, leading to a significant reduction in its viability. The model's reliance on government credit rather than project profitability has been identified as a fundamental flaw [9]. Urban Renewal and Integration of Village Renovation (2025) - The concept of urban renewal has evolved significantly, now encompassing a wide range of urban construction activities, including the renovation of urban villages and redevelopment of inefficient land. This shift represents a major expansion of the urban renewal concept [10][11]. - The integration of urban village renovation into the urban renewal framework positions it as a key pathway for infrastructure financing, marking a significant change in the financing landscape [11].