贵金属崩盘？黄金暴跌3%白银重挫6%，交易所、日元、假期三重绞杀

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with gold dropping over 3% and silver plummeting 6%, marking the worst day since March 2023 [1]. Market Performance - Domestic gold futures fell below 1000 CNY per gram, reaching a low of 972 CNY, while silver fluctuated around 18000 CNY per kilogram [3]. - In December, gold prices increased by 8% and silver by 12%, with RSI indicators indicating overbought conditions [5]. Technical Analysis - The recent decline was anticipated due to technical indicators signaling overbought conditions, leading to profit-taking by investors [5]. - The CFTC reported a surge in non-commercial net long positions in gold to 200,000 contracts by December 26, the highest in six months, indicating a crowded trade [5]. Margin Changes - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised gold margin requirements from $6,500 to $7,200 per contract and silver from $9,000 to $10,500, marking the third increase in a year [6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange also increased gold margin from 7% to 9%, raising trading limits to 6%, impacting leveraged traders significantly [8]. Currency Impact - The Japanese yen's potential interest rate hikes, as indicated by the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes, could lead to a withdrawal of funds from non-yielding assets like gold [8]. - A 1% increase in yen interest rates could reduce gold demand by 300 tons annually, according to Morgan Stanley [10]. Market Liquidity - The New Year holiday contributed to reduced market liquidity, with trading volumes historically dropping by 42% in the three trading days before the holiday [12]. - The increase in margin costs and the appreciation of the yuan led to a rapid exit of speculative funds from the market [13]. Price Discrepancies - A significant price discrepancy emerged between London gold and COMEX gold, with a spread widening to $15 per ounce, indicating a liquidity crunch in the Asian market [15]. - Institutional views diverged, with Goldman Sachs lowering its Q1 gold price target from $2,100 to $2,000, while JPMorgan maintained a target of $2,150 [15]. Future Outlook - Investors are advised to limit positions to 30% before the holiday and monitor the upcoming U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI report for potential market reactions [17]. - Long-term support for gold remains from central bank purchases, with global central banks buying 1,136 tons last year, including 103 tons by China in December [17]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as increased attacks on commercial ships, could reignite safe-haven demand for gold, similar to past conflicts [19].