2026年全球木材市场预测

Core Viewpoint - The global timber industry faced challenges in 2025 due to weak supply and demand, low price fluctuations, and ongoing trade tensions, with predictions for 2026 indicating continued structural issues in supply and pricing. North America Market: Price Fluctuations and Supply Tightening - The U.S. initiated an investigation into timber imports, raising tariffs on Canadian softwood to a mid-range of 30%, with additional tariffs pushing the total tax burden for some Canadian exporters above 40% [3] - Major Canadian companies like Canfor and West Fraser reduced production or shut down operations, leading to a significant drop in British Columbia's harvest volume [3] - The North American timber futures market experienced volatile price fluctuations in 2025, with expectations of continued supply tightening and price instability into 2026 [3] European Market: Tightening Softwood Supply - Germany, Czech Republic, and Norway face structural softwood shortages, with a reported shortfall exceeding 8 million cubic meters in 2024 due to pest control measures [5] - Sanctions against Russia and Belarus, along with the EU's Deforestation Regulation, have narrowed external timber supply channels, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [5] - European softwood exports to China significantly decreased in 2025, with expectations of further declines in 2026 [5] Russian Market: Continued Industry Pressure - The Russian forest industry is in a structural downturn due to Western sanctions, high financing costs, and loss of export markets, leading to production cuts and losses among major producers [7] - Sanctions have restricted access to international markets, forcing Russian producers to rely on domestic demand and exports to China and the Middle East [7] African Market: Export Challenges - The African timber market faced production and export declines due to financial constraints and weak external demand, particularly from China and Europe [10] - Gabon's government investigations into financial compliance have disrupted supply chains, while Cameroon imposed bans on certain timber species during its presidential election [10] - Challenges in trade with China are expected to persist into 2026, with low import volumes likely to continue [10] Oceania Market: Price Pressure - New Zealand's timber industry reported continued price pressure on raw wood exports to China, with expectations that if import prices do not align with domestic prices, profit margins will be further squeezed [12] - Australia's timber exports to China showed no significant improvement, with expectations of continued low supply levels into 2026 [12] - Papua New Guinea's government reiterated its commitment to a complete ban on raw timber exports, which may lead to short-term supply shortages and price increases in China [13] Asian Market: Spreading Uncertainty - China's timber imports in 2025 experienced a dual decline in volume and price, driven by ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector and slowing infrastructure investment [15] - The timber import market in China is expected to face uncertainties in 2026, with demand for construction timber closely tied to new housing starts [16] - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to reduce procurement costs for timber manufacturers, creating a differentiated market structure between high-value processing in Hainan and large-scale production in mainland China [16]