中国登顶全球第一时，美国为何突然对印“拔刀”？

Core Insights - The article discusses the geopolitical shift as China's GDP surpasses that of the United States, leading to the U.S. designating India as its primary strategic competitor [1] Group 1: U.S.-India Relations - U.S. direct investment in India has decreased by 37% compared to five years ago, while investment in China has only dropped by 8%, indicating a failure of the U.S. to effectively utilize India as a counterbalance to China [3] - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on India, significantly higher than the 10% tariff applied globally, reflecting deeper economic issues within India [3] - India's economic model shows a stark contrast, with only 15% of its 1.43 billion population being middle class, and its GDP of $3.9 trillion resulting in a per capita disposable income that is only 40% of China's [3] Group 2: Social and Cultural Issues - The proportion of Indian immigrants in Canada has risen from 25% in 2019 to 42% in 2025, but only 38% of them can speak basic English, leading to cultural isolation [5] - In Silicon Valley, 65% of Indian employees were prioritized for layoffs during tech company downsizing, indicating a growing backlash against Indian immigrants in Western societies [5] Group 3: Military Dynamics - The U.S. military has expressed disappointment in India's capabilities, noting that India's logistics in high-altitude combat are only at a passing level, with the gap between India and China widening from 1.8 times to 2.3 times over five years [6] - India's recent signals of easing tensions with China during the 2026 Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit have raised concerns in Washington about India's reliability as a counter to China [6] Group 4: Economic and Strategic Shifts - India has initiated a "China Manufacturing 2.0" plan to attract Chinese technology, driven by the realization that it must not miss opportunities for industrial upgrades while balancing relations with both China and the U.S. [8] - As China's GDP exceeds $35 trillion, the U.S. is shifting its strategy towards India from a tool for countering China to a competitor that needs to be managed [9] - U.S. military aid to India is transitioning from grants to loans, with conditions attached, reflecting a more transactional relationship [9] Group 5: Future Challenges - The relationship between the U.S. and India is expected to evolve through three phases: reassessing strategic value, validating capabilities, and establishing new interaction rules [11] - India's challenges, such as bureaucratic inefficiencies and social tensions, could hinder its aspirations to become a reliable global player [11]