美元霸权逻辑开始坍塌的信号

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with silver rising nearly 150% and gold surpassing $4,300 per ounce, marking the strongest annual performance since 1979 and indicating a systemic loss of confidence in the global monetary system centered around the US dollar [1] - The US dollar index (DXY) fell over 9% in 2025, with a 10.6% drop in the first half of the year, representing the worst performance since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973 [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Dollar Credibility - The decline in the dollar's purchasing power is driven by a collapse in the credibility of the Federal Reserve's policies, with three interest rate cuts since September 2025, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.5%-3.75% [3] - There are concerns about the politicization of monetary policy under the Trump administration, which could lead to a repeat of the 1970s "Great Inflation" scenario, where a lack of discipline in monetary policy resulted in a collapse of dollar credibility and a 2,300% increase in gold prices over a decade [3] Group 3: De-dollarization Trends - Central banks globally are significantly increasing their gold reserves, with emerging economies like China, India, Turkey, and Russia leading the charge, indicating a strategic shift away from the dollar [4] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Ukraine conflict, have heightened awareness of the risks associated with over-reliance on dollar assets, prompting a reassessment of the dollar's safety [4] Group 4: Gold and Silver as Strategic Assets - Gold's status as a non-sanctionable and non-freezable ultimate settlement asset has been elevated, while the internationalization of the renminbi is creating a parallel payment system, enhancing gold's role as a neutral medium of exchange [5] - Silver's price surge reflects both its financial attributes and a surge in industrial demand, particularly driven by its role in the electrification and green transition [7][8] Group 5: Structural Changes in Precious Metal Demand - The buying structure for precious metals has fundamentally shifted, with central bank purchases, private accumulation, and industrial demand providing stronger support compared to the past decade dominated by ETFs and futures [9] - The disconnect between "paper gold" and "physical gold" indicates a growing preference for tangible assets over financial derivatives, reflecting a loss of confidence in dollar-denominated financial assets [9] Group 6: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Current market conditions are often compared to the 1979-1980 gold bull market, but a more accurate reference may be the 1971-1974 period following the Nixon shock, where gold prices rose nearly 400% amid a vacuum in monetary order [10] - The ongoing rise in precious metals is not merely speculative but represents a collective vote of global capital against the dollar-centric monetary logic, signaling an irreversible loss of confidence in the existing unipolar currency system [10][11]