黄金白银新年首周遭遇“开门震荡”：资金博弈下价格剧烈波动

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced significant volatility at the beginning of 2026, with gold and silver prices declining sharply after a record-breaking performance in 2025, raising concerns about market fragility and future trends [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of January 4, 2026, gold prices fell from a historical high of $4549.69 per ounce at the end of 2025 to $4332.85 per ounce, a weekly decline of over 4.8% [1]. - Silver prices dropped from $83.943 per ounce to $72.77 per ounce, marking a decline of 13.3% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Data indicates a shift in market sentiment, with speculative long positions in COMEX gold futures remaining at 12.7% of total holdings, but the increase in fund long positions (9241 contracts) was less than the increase in commercial short positions (10348 contracts), leading to a contraction in net long positions [2]. - In the silver market, an increase in arbitrage positions (2118 contracts) suggests that funds are managing volatility through risk hedging rather than outright short selling [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.1% on January 2, 2026, which, combined with stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data (256,000 jobs added), raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, further diminishing gold's appeal [2]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a baseline forecast predicting that central bank gold purchases and potential Fed rate cuts could drive gold prices to $4900 per ounce [2]. - Morgan Stanley is more optimistic, projecting an average price of $5055 per ounce in Q4 2026 and a long-term target of $6000 per ounce by 2028 [3]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is expected to experience greater volatility due to its dual industrial and financial characteristics, with long-term support from the global green energy transition and tight supply, although short-term technical selling pressure may test the $65 per ounce support level [3]. - Analysts suggest potential future prices of $5000 for gold and $100 for silver, contingent on breaking current resistance levels of $4520 for gold and $78.5 for silver [3].