券商资管2026年展望：权益掘金牛市后半程，多元配置凸显价值

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage asset management sector is optimistic about the investment landscape for 2026, focusing on equities, bonds, and FOF strategies, with a clear direction for the year ahead [1] Equities Market: Anchoring in the Bull Market's Second Half - Multiple brokerage asset management firms maintain a positive outlook for the A-share market in 2026, believing it is still in the "second half of the bull market," driven by ample liquidity, a recovering profit cycle, ongoing policy support, and a shift in household asset allocation [2] - Guojin Asset Management notes that the current liquidity and regulatory environment is improving, with long-term capital inflows expected, and structural opportunities arising from technological advancements and economic highlights [2] - Caitong Asset Management anticipates a "spring rally" potentially occurring at the end of the year, focusing on TMT and small-cap styles, while identifying sectors like power equipment, non-bank financials, and media as having favorable price-to-book (PB) and return on equity (ROE) metrics [2] - Guotai Haitong Asset Management believes the current A-share market began its rally on September 24, 2024, with a slow bull trend expected to solidify in 2025 and 2026, amidst a favorable environment of RMB appreciation and low domestic interest rates [2] Key Investment Sectors for 2026 - Guotai Haitong Asset Management recommends focusing on the "5+X" sectors in the first half of 2026, including photovoltaic, brokerage, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and basic chemicals, with an additional focus on Hang Seng Technology [3] - Huatai Securities Asset Management emphasizes four main investment lines: technology growth with expanding fundamentals, upstream sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, advanced manufacturing in the midstream, and deeply undervalued consumer and non-bank financial sectors [3] Bonds Market: Wide Fluctuations as the Main Theme - Several brokerage asset management firms predict that bond yields will maintain a wide fluctuation trend, with limited space for both upward and downward movements, focusing on wave trading and structural opportunities [4] - Guojin Asset Management suggests that active fiscal policies may continue to exert pressure on bond yields, while Caitong Asset Management indicates that weak fundamental recovery will support the bond market, with an emphasis on capturing wave trading opportunities [4][5] FOF Market: Multi-Asset Strategies Present Configuration Opportunities - The brokerage asset management sector is optimistic about multi-asset FOF strategies for 2026, believing that quantitative strategies and active funds will contribute to excess returns [6] - Guojin Asset Management highlights that the current complementary credit cycles between China and the U.S. support total demand, leading to a cautious optimism regarding multi-asset FOF returns in 2026 [6] - Caitong Asset Management stresses the advantages of diversified asset allocation in 2026, with expectations for active funds to continue generating excess returns [7]