深度｜人民币“破7”冷思考

Core Viewpoint - The RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to exhibit a "weak first, strong later" trend in 2025, with a significant appreciation towards the end of the year, breaking the key psychological level of "7" due to multiple factors including a weakening dollar and a stable Chinese economy [1][5][10]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - From early 2025 to early April, the RMB/USD exchange rate fluctuated weakly around 7.30-7.35, before turning to a trend of appreciation starting in April [1][4]. - By December 25, the offshore RMB broke the 7 mark, reaching a new high since September 2024, while the onshore RMB also surpassed 7.0, marking its highest level since May 2023 [4][5]. - The RMB's appreciation is attributed to a weakening dollar, a stable economic performance in China, and increased demand for currency settlement at year-end [5][6]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Exchange Rate - The weakening of the dollar is identified as a primary driver for the RMB's appreciation, with the dollar index dropping significantly in the latter part of 2025 [5][6]. - Seasonal factors also play a role, as historical trends show that the RMB tends to appreciate at the end of the year due to increased settlement needs from exporters [6][7]. - The interplay between the RMB's appreciation and the settlement behavior of export enterprises creates a positive feedback loop, further supporting the currency's strength [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China aims to maintain the RMB's stability at a reasonable and balanced level, with a focus on preventing excessive fluctuations and ensuring a dual-directional volatility in the exchange rate [8][9]. - In 2026, the RMB is expected to experience dual-directional fluctuations, influenced by the relative strength of the US and Chinese economies, changes in dollar interest rates, and the evolution of China's foreign trade relationships [1][10]. - Analysts predict that the RMB will likely remain within the range of 6.9-7.3, with various factors contributing to its stability and potential appreciation [10][11].