人民币汇率破7背后

Core Viewpoint - The RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to experience a "weak first, strong later" trend in 2025, with the rate fluctuating between 7.30 and 7.35 until early April, followed by a significant appreciation towards the end of the year, breaking the key psychological level of "7" [1][4][6]. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to multiple factors, including a weakening USD, a stable Chinese economic fundamental, and increased demand for currency settlement at year-end [1][6][8]. - The RMB's rise is supported by the resilience of exports and the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, which have contributed to the upward pressure on the currency [8][10]. - The correlation between the USD index and the RMB exchange rate indicates that a 3% depreciation in the USD typically corresponds to a 1% appreciation in the RMB, highlighting the impact of USD movements on RMB valuation [6][8]. Group 2: Seasonal and Market Dynamics - Seasonal factors also play a role in the RMB's appreciation, with historical trends showing stronger appreciation at the end of the year due to increased settlement needs from exporters [7][8]. - The end-of-year settlement demand from export enterprises has been identified as a significant driver for the RMB's rise, as companies accelerate currency conversion to avoid exchange losses [8][10]. - The market sentiment has shifted, with previously bearish views on the RMB reversing as Chinese assets become more attractive compared to US assets, leading to a reversal of previously held foreign capital [8][10]. Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, emphasizing the prevention of excessive fluctuations and the need for a stable monetary policy [10][11]. - Factors that may support the RMB in 2026 include a potential weakening of the USD due to economic pressures and a rebound in the Chinese economy, which could sustain the RMB's appreciation momentum [11][12]. - The RMB is expected to maintain a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with projections indicating a trading range between 6.9 and 7.3 against the USD throughout 2026 [12].