Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-04 15:27Core Viewpoint - Baidu's stock price surged following the announcement of Kunlun Chip's application for a separate listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Goldman Sachs highlighting the potential for value unlocking through this asset separation [1] Group 1: Kunlun Chip Sales Growth - Goldman Sachs estimates that Kunlun Chip's total sales will reach approximately RMB 3.5 billion in 2025 and RMB 6.5 billion in 2026, primarily driven by Baidu's AI cloud infrastructure [2] - By the end of 2026, external sales are expected to account for 14% of Baidu Cloud's total revenue, alongside a recurring subscription business that currently constitutes nearly 30% of cloud revenue, together representing 43% of total revenue for Baidu Cloud in 2026 [2] Group 2: Peer Valuation Reference - Competitors such as Cambricon and Moore Threads are projected to have sales multiples of 40x and over 100x for 2026, while Wall Street's newly listed Biren Technology reached a market value of HKD 80 billion shortly after its IPO [3] Group 3: Impact on Baidu - Baidu's revenue from Kunlun Chip's sales will be included in its AI infrastructure cloud revenue, with strong growth anticipated in the AI accelerator-related cloud business driven by robust subscription revenue and rapid growth in external sales of Kunlun Chip [4] - The valuation of Baidu's 59% stake in Kunlun Chip is estimated to range from USD 3 billion to USD 11 billion, corresponding to a total valuation of USD 5 billion to USD 18 billion for Kunlun Chip, which represents 6% to 23% of Baidu's current market value [4] - If a 40x sales multiple is applied for 2026, the valuation of Baidu's stake could reach USD 22 billion, accounting for 45% of its latest market value [4] Group 4: Future Points of Interest for Baidu - Monitoring updates on Kunlun Chip's new orders, product upgrades, and progress towards independent listing will highlight the asset's value [6] - Updates on shareholder return policy revisions in Q1 2026 [6] - Insights from recent investor meetings regarding asset value unlocking initiatives [6] - Progress related to major listings in Hong Kong and southbound trading [6]