Group 1 - The core point of the article emphasizes that the fluctuation of the US dollar is primarily influenced by the actions of large institutional investors rather than just news headlines [3][16] - The article highlights that the US dollar has dropped over 9% this year, marking its worst annual performance in eight years, largely due to market speculation about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3][4] - It is suggested that the real indicator of stock performance is whether large funds are actively trading, rather than focusing solely on valuation metrics [4][16] Group 2 - The article discusses the pitfalls of relying on valuation alone, illustrating with examples of stocks with low and high price-to-earnings ratios that performed contrary to expectations due to lack of institutional trading [4][9] - A quantitative measure called "institutional inventory" is introduced, which reflects the active trading behavior of institutions rather than just their buying volume [8][9] - The article concludes that monitoring institutional inventory is more reliable than following news or valuation metrics for predicting stock price movements [16]
美元年度大跌，但比这更重要的是…
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-04 16:36