滕泰：应将定向消费补贴转为收入补贴，居民会把钱花在最需要的地方

Core Viewpoint - The core challenge facing the Chinese economy in 2026 is insufficient domestic demand, manifested through a sluggish real estate market, declining private investment, and weak consumer spending [4][5]. Group 1: Economic Challenges - The real estate market continues to experience low transaction volumes, falling prices, and negative investment growth, which negatively impacts both investment and consumption [5]. - Private investment has seen a decline, with a reported negative growth of 5.3% from January to November 2025, indicating a need for improved market expectations and confidence [5]. - The proportion of household consumption in GDP remains low, highlighting a lack of consumer vitality [5]. Group 2: Solutions for Economic Growth - To address these challenges, it is essential to shift the national income and expenditure structure through dual reforms in fiscal and income policies to boost consumption [4][6]. - The transition from ineffective investments to direct subsidies for residents is crucial, as reallocating fiscal funds from infrastructure to consumer subsidies could significantly enhance total demand [6][7]. - A healthy capital market is expected to replace the real estate sector's role in driving investment and increasing household wealth, working alongside emerging industries to form a dual engine for future economic growth [4][9]. Group 3: Emerging Industries and New Consumption - Emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, high-end chips, civil aerospace, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-end services are anticipated to become new economic pillars, replacing the growth function previously held by real estate [9][10]. - The application of artificial intelligence is projected to create new consumption scenarios, fundamentally reshaping existing lifestyles and work methods, similar to the impact of the internet [10].