布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：内外因素交织，德国出口增长动能不足

Core Insights - German export trade is under significant pressure due to weak demand from its two largest overseas markets, the United States and China, with a challenging period expected to last until 2026 [1][3] - The German Foreign Trade Association warns that exporters need to prepare for a difficult period ahead [1] Group 1: Market Performance - There are no clear signs of recovery in key markets, with companies only able to expect occasional brief improvements [3] - Exports to the United States are projected to decline by over 7% in 2025, falling to just below €150 billion [3] - Exports to China are expected to see a more significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 10%, leading to an estimated export value of around €81 billion [3] Group 2: Structural Challenges - Transatlantic trade is hindered by ongoing tariff measures, with U.S. tariffs on EU goods described as "grains of sand obstructing the smooth operation of transatlantic trade" [6] - These additional costs are squeezing profit margins for German exporters [6] - The German export sector faces multiple internal structural challenges, including a strong euro that diminishes price competitiveness, high energy costs increasing manufacturing burdens, and cumbersome procedures alongside insufficient domestic investment [6] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - In light of the current situation, German exporters may need to further adjust their market strategies and actively address cost and structural challenges to maintain competitiveness amid weak external demand [8] - Market observers are closely monitoring economic data changes to assess when German foreign trade might signal a more certain recovery [8]