2026年美元汇率展望： 趋势性走弱与周期性反弹的博弈

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index experienced its most significant annual decline since 2017, with a drop of nearly 10% in 2025, and is expected to continue its weakness into 2026, with a consensus forecast predicting an additional decline of about 3% [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Performance in 2025 - The dollar's performance in 2025 was characterized by a sharp decline and subsequent weak fluctuations, with the index dropping from a high of 109.24 to a low of 96.99, ending the year around 98, marking a cumulative decline of approximately 9.3% to 9.7%, the worst annual performance in eight years [2]. - The decline was attributed to the weakening of the "American exceptionalism" narrative that had supported the strong dollar, alongside the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in response to economic slowdown and inflation easing [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment for 2026 - Major financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, hold bearish views on the dollar for 2026, based on four key factors: the Federal Reserve's shift towards a more dovish monetary policy, the divergence in monetary policy among major central banks, changing global economic growth dynamics, and structural pressures from the trend of "de-dollarization" [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate cuts, with predictions of a cumulative reduction of 50 basis points in the first half of 2026, influenced by a potential leadership change that may favor low interest rates [3]. Group 3: Economic Growth Dynamics - The market is adjusting its growth expectations for the US and non-US economies, with the IMF maintaining its 2026 growth forecast for the US, while showing optimism for recovery in Eurozone economies like Germany [4]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, as concerns over US fiscal sustainability and tariff policies are undermining the dollar's credibility as an international reserve currency, leading to increased investment in gold as a hedge against dollar risk [4]. Group 4: Potential Factors for Dollar Rebound - Despite the prevailing downtrend, several factors could trigger a temporary rebound in the dollar, including the possibility that the Federal Reserve's monetary easing may not be as aggressive as anticipated, and the resilience of the US economy could provide support for the dollar [5][6]. - The lack of a clear alternative to the dollar for global reserve and settlement functions suggests that the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset may be reaffirmed in times of geopolitical tension, potentially attracting capital back to the dollar [7].