进口牛肉保障措施： 权衡自由贸易与国内产业

Core Viewpoint - China's meat production, particularly pork, has a comparative advantage, while beef and lamb production lacks this advantage, necessitating adjustments in domestic livestock farming structures and the development of related industries like prepared foods for export to balance trade and domestic needs [1][2][8]. Group 1: Trade Measures and Investigations - In 2024, the Ministry of Commerce initiated trade remedy investigations on imported pork and beef, with final rulings released in December 2025 confirming dumping and substantial damage to domestic industries [1][2]. - The Ministry of Commerce announced safeguard measures for imported beef in December 2024, recognizing that increased imports severely harmed domestic industries, leading to a three-year quota and tariff system starting January 2026 [2]. Group 2: Meat Production Trends - From 1996 to 2024, China's population grew from 1.22389 billion to 1.40828 billion, while meat production increased from 45.84 million tons to 97.799 million tons, reflecting a long-term growth trend despite setbacks from events like the African swine fever [3]. - In 2024, China imported 6.67 million tons of meat while exporting only 630,000 tons, indicating a significant trade imbalance in the meat sector [4]. Group 3: Import and Export Dynamics - In 2024, China imported 2.91 million tons of beef, with 2.87 million tons being beef alone, while sheep meat imports fluctuated significantly [5]. - The import of beef surpassed pork in 2023, with beef imports accounting for 37% of domestic production by 2024, compared to pork's much lower import ratio [9][10]. Group 4: Economic and Agricultural Implications - Maintaining a balance between domestic production and imports is crucial for economic security, with a focus on ensuring food security while expanding import capabilities [6][7]. - The comparative advantage of pork production supports a higher self-sufficiency rate, while beef and lamb production face challenges, suggesting a need for strategic adjustments in livestock production [10][11]. Group 5: Future Strategies - To enhance trade balance, it is recommended to reduce beef and lamb production while increasing pork production, alongside developing the prepared food industry to meet both domestic and international demands [11][12].