国金证券牟一凌：市场脱离低回报区域 可布局四条主线

Group 1 - The chief strategist of Guojin Securities, Miao Yiling, predicts that the ROE of the A-share non-financial real estate sector will increase from 7.2% to 7.9% by 2026, indicating a shift from a "low return" zone to a higher profitability phase [1] - Miao suggests four main investment lines: industrial resources, equipment exports, consumer recovery, and non-bank financials, with a focus on tracking the demand for aluminum, copper, steel, and coal driven by power system construction [1] - In overseas markets, the U.S. and Europe are experiencing characteristics such as "investment stronger than consumption," profit differentiation among large and small enterprises, declining employment, and slowing wage growth, which provide a foundation for a sustained interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - On the domestic consumption front, the drag of housing prices on household spending has diminished, with an increase in foreign tourists due to trade settlement rate recovery and visa-free entry, leading to improved net profit margins in industries such as aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverages [2] - In terms of funding, there is a shift of household savings towards "fixed income+" investments, with pension and insurance funds continuously increasing their allocation to equities; the policy adjustments to lower insurance risk factors and relax brokerage leverage will resonate with the recovery of the non-bank sector and ROE [2]