三角定价破局：贵金属与货币异动背后的主权资产重估逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in precious metals like gold and silver is attributed to a shift in market focus from short-term indicators to core factors such as sovereign balance sheets and currency quality, rather than just inflation and interest rates [4][24]. Group 1: Gold's Strength - The recent increase in gold prices is not solely due to its traditional role as a safe-haven asset but is significantly driven by its non-debt attribute, which has become more appealing in the current market environment [6][7]. - Gold is increasingly viewed as a hedge against systemic uncertainties and potential risks arising from imbalances in sovereign balance sheets, as evidenced by central banks accumulating gold reserves [10][26]. - The frequency of financial sanctions and asset freezes has made gold a safer store of value, with its hidden value in revaluing official gold to repair balance sheets further enhancing its attractiveness [12]. Group 2: Currency Market Divergence - The currency market is experiencing notable divergence, where some currencies appear stable but are losing purchasing power, while previously overlooked currencies are rising alongside gold [14]. - The key factor behind this divergence is the quality of currencies, which includes the reliability of issuance rules, long-term purchasing power expectations, and the availability of alternative options [14][16]. - Currencies from low-debt countries are gaining a "quality premium" due to their lower public sector leverage and stronger institutional stability, leading to a closer correlation with gold prices [16]. Group 3: Traditional Pricing Logic Failure - The traditional pricing logic that links high inflation and low interest rates to rising gold prices is no longer valid, as it overlooks critical realities such as the inaccuracy of inflation indicators and the use of interest rates as policy tools [18][19][21]. - The market is shifting from focusing on short-term economic data to a long-term reassessment of sovereign credit, monetary systems, and the ultimate value of physical assets [23][24]. - The "sovereign balance sheet - currency quality - physical asset" triangular pricing framework proposed by the research institute encapsulates the current market dynamics, indicating that the perceived "decoupling" of precious metals and currencies is a misinterpretation of the new market [24][26].