观车 · 论势 || 商用车转型年：政策筑基、技术破局与出海远征

Core Insights - The Chinese commercial vehicle industry is undergoing a significant transformation towards green transition and high-quality development, moving away from a scale expansion model driven by policy guidance, technological innovation, and overseas expansion [1][4]. Policy Framework - A series of coordinated policy measures are being implemented to create a supportive environment for the commercial vehicle industry's transition, including the comprehensive implementation of old vehicle scrapping policies to promote the consumption of new energy commercial vehicles [1]. - The regulatory framework is being improved to enhance safety, emission standards, and quality supervision, aiming to eliminate low-level homogeneous competition and promote standardization and high-end transformation [1]. - Supportive policies related to logistics efficiency and infrastructure are indirectly releasing potential demand in the commercial vehicle market, instilling confidence for industry stabilization [1]. Technological Innovation - The commercial vehicle technology sector is characterized by diverse advancements, moving beyond the "oil-to-electric" transition to multiple technological pathways such as pure electric, hydrogen fuel cells, hybrid, and methanol, catering to different application scenarios [2]. - The competition in intelligent technology is intensifying, with advancements in autonomous driving and electronic architecture accelerating the evolution of commercial vehicles into intelligent mobile terminals [2]. - The application of AI models and next-generation driver assistance systems is enhancing safety and comfort while supporting the digital upgrade of the logistics industry, shifting the focus from price competition to value competition [2]. Global Expansion - The export of Chinese commercial vehicles has shifted from mere trade to a deeper collaboration involving brand, technology, and industrial chain output, with exports growing over 10% year-on-year in the first three quarters, accounting for nearly a quarter of total sales [3]. - Chinese commercial vehicle companies are leveraging their advantages in new energy and intelligent technology to expand into mainstream global markets, transforming technological advantages into market success [3]. - The establishment of overseas production bases and service networks, along with participation in local standard-setting, reflects a strategic transition from product export to industry export, enhancing global operational capabilities [3]. Industry Dynamics - The interaction between policy guidance, technological innovation, and overseas expansion has created a positive cycle, with forward-looking policies generating initial market space for technological breakthroughs [4]. - The successful exploration of overseas markets reinforces companies' commitment to deepening their transformation, contributing to domestic industrial upgrades [4]. - Despite facing challenges such as intensified competition and trade barriers, the commercial vehicle industry is gradually demonstrating the effectiveness of its transformation towards high-quality development [4][5].