21评论丨2026年A股有望在震荡中继续上扬

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market demonstrated resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points in Q4, marking a nearly ten-year high and an annual increase of over 30% [1] - A-shares are expected to continue their upward trend in 2026, supported by policy dividends and improvements in both internal and external environments [1] Group 2: Global Liquidity and Currency Trends - The reopening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has led to marginal improvements in the global liquidity environment, with the US dollar index weakening significantly [2] - The RMB has shown a temporary strengthening trend, with the USD/RMB exchange rate breaking the 7.0 mark by year-end, reflecting recognition of China's economic resilience [2] - The combination of a weaker dollar and a stronger RMB enhances the relative attractiveness of Chinese assets, making A-shares more appealing to overseas investors [2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Policies and Demand - Fiscal policies aimed at expanding effective investment and moderately loose monetary policies are gradually strengthening domestic demand [3] - The overall inflation level in 2025 is showing a low recovery trend, with core CPI growth maintaining above 1% since September 2025, indicating improvements in domestic supply and demand structures [3] - These macroeconomic policies are expected to support a clearer recovery cycle for corporate profits in 2026, providing a fundamental backing for the A-share market [3] Group 4: Capital Market Dynamics - As the real estate market adjusts and risk-free interest rates decline, household funds are shifting towards equity assets with greater appreciation potential [4] - Continuous deepening of capital market reforms and improved investor protection mechanisms are accelerating this transition, leading to a stable and sustained influx of new funds into the A-share market [4] - Institutional investors are increasingly willing to allocate funds to equity assets, enhancing market effectiveness and stability [4] Group 5: Technological Advancements and Investment Opportunities - Continuous improvements in domestic technology levels are expected to create new investment themes and provide upward momentum for the A-share market [5] - Significant progress in fields such as AI, semiconductors, high-end manufacturing, and aerospace is injecting new vitality into economic development and offering fresh investment opportunities [5] - Technological innovation is becoming the core driving force for structural trends in the A-share market, expected to dominate market styles and capital flows in 2026 [5]