2026年全球黄金市场展望报告

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is expected to continue its strong performance in 2026, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, a weaker dollar, and ongoing central bank purchases, despite potential economic fluctuations [1][7][49]. Group 1: 2025 Gold Market Performance - In 2025, gold prices surged over 60%, reaching more than 50 historical highs, primarily due to geopolitical risks, economic uncertainties, and a declining dollar [1][11]. - The short-term price performance model indicates that geopolitical risks and reduced opportunity costs significantly contributed to the price increase [11][19]. Group 2: 2026 Market Scenarios - The World Gold Council outlines four potential scenarios for the 2026 gold market based on macroeconomic trends: stable growth, mild recession, severe recession, and return of inflation [1][20]. - In a mild recession scenario, gold prices could rise by 5% to 15% due to a slowing U.S. economy and increased Fed rate cuts [27]. - In a severe recession scenario, gold prices may increase by 15% to 30% as geopolitical and economic risks escalate [32]. - Conversely, in a return to inflation scenario, gold prices could decline by 5% to 20% if economic policies lead to stronger growth and a stronger dollar [36]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - Central bank gold purchases remain a crucial support factor, especially as emerging markets have low gold reserve ratios compared to developed economies [42][43]. - The supply of recycled gold may decrease if prices rise and economic conditions weaken, potentially supporting gold prices [2][38]. - Investment demand, particularly from gold ETFs, is expected to grow, providing additional upward pressure on gold prices [2][32]. Group 4: Conclusion - The outlook for the gold market in 2026 is shaped by economic uncertainties, with a likelihood of continued volatility similar to 2025 [49][50]. - Despite potential bearish scenarios, gold's role as a diversification and risk-hedging tool remains significant, with central bank purchases and recycled gold supply being key variables [50].