人民币“破7”冷思考 2026年升值动能与回调压力并存
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2026-01-05 00:34

Core Viewpoint - The RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to experience both appreciation momentum and adjustment pressure in 2026, influenced by various economic factors and external uncertainties [1][8]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - In 2025, the RMB/USD exchange rate exhibited a "weak first, strong later" trend, fluctuating between 7.30 and 7.35 until early April, before turning to an upward trend [1][2]. - By the end of 2025, both offshore and onshore RMB rates broke the psychological barrier of "7", reaching new highs since September 2024 and May 2023, respectively [1][3]. - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a weaker USD, stable Chinese economic fundamentals, and increased demand for currency settlement at year-end [1][2][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The weakening of the USD is identified as a primary driver for the recent RMB appreciation, with the USD index dropping significantly after peaking above 100 in November [3][6]. - Seasonal factors also play a role, as historical trends show that the RMB tends to appreciate at the end of the year due to increased currency settlement needs from exporters [4][5]. - The strong performance of exports and the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets have further supported the RMB's rise [6][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, emphasizing the prevention of excessive fluctuations [7][8]. - In 2026, the RMB is likely to experience a dual-directional fluctuation rather than a one-sided trend, with potential appreciation driven by favorable domestic and international conditions [1][8][9]. - Analysts predict that the RMB/USD exchange rate will likely remain within the range of 6.9 to 7.3, influenced by various economic factors and market dynamics [9].

人民币“破7”冷思考 2026年升值动能与回调压力并存 - Reportify