骐骥驰骋 “有色”可期

Macroeconomic Overview - In 2025, global markets operated amidst geopolitical conflicts, tariff disruptions, and technological narratives, with both gold and equity assets rising simultaneously, while the US dollar and oil prices showed similar trends [1] - The market experienced four phases driven by significant events: "Trump trade reversal - risk appetite recovery - simultaneous rise of stocks and gold - 'TACO trade'" [1] - For 2026, a temporary easing in the US-China rivalry is expected in the first three quarters, but risks may rise around the US midterm elections [1] - The US is in a downward credit cycle, attempting to reverse the trend through policy combinations, while China is in the early stages of a new credit expansion [1] Precious Metals - In 2025, precious metals like gold and silver reached historical highs, driven by initial concerns over inflation and later by interest rate cuts and structural squeezes [2] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to favor precious metals due to continued fiscal and monetary easing in the US, with inflation remaining sticky [2] - Gold's long-term bull market is supported by sovereign debt issues, de-globalization, and ongoing asset reallocation by central banks and private sectors [2] - Silver is projected to face a supply deficit of 2,950 tons, with industrial demand remaining resilient [2] Copper - In 2025, copper prices unexpectedly rose due to increased mining disruptions and supportive macro conditions [3] - The copper market is expected to remain in a tight balance in 2026, with supply constraints likely easing by the second half of the year [3] - Consumption growth is projected to stabilize at 2.5% to 3%, supported by demand from electric grids and AI technologies [3] Aluminum - The aluminum market in 2026 is expected to show a pattern of "loose ore, stable aluminum, and high profits" [4] - Upstream bauxite supply is expected to be ample, with alumina facing oversupply pressures [4] - Domestic aluminum production is nearing its peak, while global supply is slightly oversupplied [4] Nickel - The nickel market is anticipated to continue facing oversupply in 2026, with prices under downward pressure [5] - The introduction of MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate) is expected to significantly lower cost support for nickel prices [5] - Overall, the market is expected to remain bearish due to weak stainless steel demand and insufficient growth in the new energy sector [5] Tin - The global tin market is expected to maintain a tight balance in 2026, with demand driven by AI-related electronics showing explosive growth [6] - Supply recovery is anticipated from Myanmar and Indonesia, leading to a slight increase in global tin ingot production [6] - Price expectations are set between $31,700 and $40,000 per ton for LME tin [6] Zinc - The zinc market is expected to continue showing significant divergence between domestic and international trends in 2026 [7] - Domestic supply is expected to increase significantly, while demand remains weak due to real estate constraints [7] - Overall, zinc prices are projected to fluctuate within a range of 21,500 to 24,500 yuan per ton [7] Lead - The lead market is expected to show a "tight ore, loose ingot, and strong domestic, weak foreign" structure in 2026 [8] - Global lead supply is expected to be strong, while demand remains weak, leading to an overall surplus of about 100,000 tons [8] - Price expectations are set between 16,600 and 18,000 yuan per ton for domestic lead [8] Black Metals - The black metal market is expected to see a deep V-shaped reversal in 2025, with steel demand continuing to decline [10] - Iron ore is entering a loosening cycle, while coal prices may remain stable due to supportive policies [10] - Coking coal prices are expected to stabilize around 1,410 yuan per ton [10] Silicon - The industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to show relative supply looseness in 2026 [11] - Industrial silicon supply is projected to reach 4.95 million tons, while demand growth is expected to be only 4% [11] - Price expectations for industrial silicon are set between 7,000 and 10,500 yuan per ton [11] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [12] - Despite a projected 23% increase in global lithium resources, domestic demand is expected to grow by 20% [12] - Price expectations are set between 70,000 and 150,000 yuan per ton, with an average price around 100,000 yuan per ton [12]