原油市场短期博弈加剧

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced volatility last week, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions but ultimately declining due to strong expectations of oversupply in the market [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical issues in regions such as Ukraine, the Middle East, and Venezuela have caused fluctuations in oil prices, with positive signals from the Ukraine conflict contributing to a price rebound [1] - The recent decline in Iranian oil exports has drawn market attention, with daily exports expected to drop to 1.011 million barrels by December 2025, a decrease of 824,000 barrels (approximately 44.9%) from November 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Iranian Oil Exports - The decline in Iranian oil exports is largely attributed to a limited number of downstream buyers, as Russian oil is being purchased at significant discounts, leading to an increase in floating storage of nearly 50 million barrels [2] - The instability of Iran's domestic situation and external pressures pose challenges to the stability of its oil supply, with potential for further sanctions to exacerbate the decline in exports [2] Group 3: Venezuelan Oil Situation - Following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, there is a focus on the potential for U.S. oil companies to invest billions in repairing Venezuela's damaged oil infrastructure, although the oil embargo remains in effect [2][3] - The current paralysis of Venezuela's oil exports due to political turmoil is expected to lead to a temporary absence of heavy oil supply in the international market, prompting Asian refineries to seek alternatives from Russia and the Middle East [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall outlook for January indicates that oil prices may continue to decline due to significant oversupply pressures, although the potential for geopolitical factors to cause short-term price increases exists [3] - The interplay between geopolitical disturbances and supply surplus pressures will shape the oil market in January, with expectations that any price increases driven by geopolitical factors may lack sustainability [3]