张尧浠：黄金本周仍有调整风险、但后市前景待看新高不变

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a significant decline last week, recovering the previous week's losses and forming a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating potential further downward adjustments. However, the overall upward trend and bullish outlook remain intact, suggesting that any further declines could present buying opportunities [1][3]. Price Movements - Gold prices opened slightly higher at $4,537.12 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $4,548.58, and then fell sharply, recording a daily drop of over $200. The weekly low was $4,274.54, with a final closing price of $4,328.35, reflecting a weekly decline of $203.91 or 4.5% compared to the previous week's close of $4,532.26 [3]. - The market's volatility was influenced by profit-taking after previous surges in precious metals, increased margin requirements for futures contracts, and a drop in initial jobless claims in the U.S. [3][4]. Geopolitical Influences - Recent geopolitical tensions, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and airstrikes in Yemen, have driven demand for gold as a safe haven. However, these factors are typically short-term boosts, and the overall market adjustment pattern remains to be seen [4][6]. Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is highly anticipated, as it will be the first normal monthly data since the end of the government shutdown. Any signs of a slowing job market could accelerate rate cut expectations, which may negatively impact gold prices [6]. - Other economic indicators, such as ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, will also be assessed to gauge the health of the U.S. economy and the timing of potential Fed rate cuts [6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite a significant initial increase in gold prices, the overall bullish outlook remains unchanged, supported by factors such as expected Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank demand for gold [6][8]. - Projections for 2026 suggest continued benefits from Fed rate cut expectations, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and strong demand for gold from central banks and ETFs, indicating further bullish market potential [8]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly chart, gold prices have shown a significant pullback, indicating potential for a larger correction towards the $4,000-$3,900 range. However, a strong performance in January could signal a bullish trend towards $5,500-$6,000 [8]. - Weekly and daily charts indicate that while there may be short-term downward pressure, the overall trend remains upward, with key support levels identified at $4,325 and $4,280 [10].