中信证券：汇率升值传导利润端 再次强调“重视航司盈利拐点”

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a significant increase in cross-regional passenger flow during the New Year's holiday, with a year-on-year growth of 16.3% in daily average passenger flow [1][2] - The aviation sector is expected to see a turning point in profitability due to high demand and limited supply, leading to a potential increase in average ticket prices during the holiday [3][4] Passenger Flow Statistics - Daily average passenger flow for civil aviation, railways, highways, and non-commercial vehicles increased by 8.4%, 42.0%, and 14.2% respectively during the first two days of the New Year holiday [2][5] - The total daily average cross-regional passenger flow reached 19.6087 million, with civil aviation achieving a daily average of 1.901 million passengers, marking a 9.9% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2][3] Demand Drivers - The increase in passenger flow is attributed to the three-day holiday and the "3 days off, 8 days off" policy, which stimulated travel demand [2][5] - Popular travel destinations, such as Harbin and Sanya, saw significant growth in flight bookings, with increases of 18% to 52% for various routes [2][3] Airline Capacity and Pricing - The growth in passenger volume outpaced the increase in flight numbers, which only grew by 2.0%, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][4] - The average ticket price for the holiday is expected to turn positive year-on-year due to high demand and industry price discipline [3][4] New Aircraft Orders - Three airlines, including Air China and Spring Airlines, announced the purchase of 115 Airbus A320 aircraft, with a total value of approximately $17.76 billion, expected to be delivered between 2028 and 2032 [4] - The impact of these new orders on capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be limited due to various factors affecting delivery timelines [4] Cash Flow and Dividend Appeal - The increase in passenger flow during the holiday is expected to stabilize cash flow for transportation companies, making high-dividend stocks more attractive, with dividend yields returning to around 4.5% [5][6]