日本散户无视日股牛市“出逃”！资本外流加剧日元长期疲软

Core Insights - Japanese retail investors are shifting their focus from domestic stocks to overseas equities, with net sales of Japanese stocks reaching 3.8 trillion yen (approximately 24.3 billion USD) by November 2025, the highest level in over a decade [1] - Concurrently, net purchases of foreign stocks through investment trusts by Japanese retail investors are hovering around a record 9.4 trillion yen in 2024, indicating a strong appetite for foreign assets driven by a weaker yen [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The outflow of funds from Japan is exerting depreciation pressure on the yen, with expectations that it may weaken to 160 yen per dollar or more by the end of 2026 [6] - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes and increased government spending are influencing the yen's value, contrasting with policymakers' goals to encourage domestic investment [3][6] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Retail investors express a belief that U.S. stocks, particularly large tech companies, hold greater potential, especially in the context of AI growth [3] - Concerns about overexposure to U.S. tech stocks may lead Japanese retail investors to reconsider their investment strategies, particularly as the AI boom shows signs of slowing [8] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose by 25% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 index, driven by strong corporate earnings and supportive government policies [3] - Structural factors, such as the yield gap between Japanese and U.S. bonds, are contributing to the yen's lack of attractiveness for yield-seeking investors [6]