委内瑞拉变局后，OPEC+声明“将维持石油产量稳定至2026年一季度”

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ reaffirms commitment to maintaining oil market stability and will keep current production policies unchanged until Q1 2026 despite geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Policy - OPEC+ key members decided to suspend planned production increases for February and March 2026 due to seasonal demand patterns [1] - The organization emphasizes that current low inventory levels indicate a well-balanced oil market, despite an 18% drop in oil prices in 2025 [3][4] - OPEC+ maintains flexibility in its strategy, including the option to extend or reverse voluntary adjustments, such as the announced 2.2 million barrels per day reduction [4] Group 2: Market Monitoring and Compliance - OPEC+ reaffirms collective adherence to the Cooperation Declaration and will fully compensate for any excess production since January 2024 [5] - The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will continue to monitor compliance and compensation progress, with monthly meetings scheduled [5] Group 3: Venezuela's Oil Production Challenges - Venezuela's oil production is currently around 1 million barrels per day, significantly down from a decade ago, and accounts for less than 1% of global supply [11] - Political instability and lack of investment have severely impacted Venezuela's oil output, with a 25% reduction in production due to U.S. sanctions [13] - Even if sanctions are lifted, significant reforms and investment are needed to restore production to higher levels, indicating that Venezuela is unlikely to disrupt global supply in the short term [13]