高盛：欧洲经济韧性超预期，2026年可望重返增长轨道

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that the Eurozone and the UK are showing unexpected economic resilience in 2025, with strong domestic demand exceeding previous forecasts despite pressure from US tariffs on exports and real GDP growth [1] Economic Growth Projections - The bank anticipates that the negative impact of US tariffs will gradually diminish, leading to improved economic growth across Europe in 2026 [1] - The projected economic growth for the Eurozone in 2026 is 1.3%, while the UK is expected to grow by 0.9%, aligning with general market expectations [1] Factors Supporting Economic Activity - Germany's shift in fiscal policy and increased defense spending from various countries are expected to be significant supports for economic activity in the coming year [1] - Strong growth in real income is predicted to further boost consumer spending [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Given the economic resilience, it is likely that the European Central Bank will maintain interest rates in 2026, unless there is a notable demand-driven inflation or a deterioration in economic outlook [1]