摩根资产管理全球市场2026年的开局展望：宏观环境积极，关注科技成长与景气修复

Group 1: A-share Market Insights - The macro environment is positive with a strong RMB exchange rate and ongoing expectations for overseas interest rate cuts, providing a favorable liquidity backdrop for the market [2] - The end-of-year PMI data showed a seasonal increase, boosting confidence in the economy for 2026 [2] - The national fiscal work conference emphasized a more proactive fiscal policy for 2026, focusing on boosting consumption and effective investment in key areas [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investment recommendations should focus on high-growth sectors and industry trends, including sectors with valuation and growth protection such as optical modules, PCBs, and lithium battery storage [3] - There is potential for deep exploration in technology growth areas like AI applications and robotics, as well as tracking policy catalysts related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum, which have potential for price recovery, should also be monitored [3] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern, with attention shifting back to macro data, monetary policy signals, and corporate earnings expectations [4] - If the interest rate environment remains favorable and economic data does not show significant downturn risks, the market can sustain a strong oscillating trend [4] - Structural differentiation and phase volatility may still occur as the market navigates between optimistic expectations and cautious pricing [4] Group 4: European Stock Market Trends - The European stock market has shown stable performance, with signs of recovery entering the new year, although it remains primarily in a range-bound operation [5] - Positive local policies are enhancing growth momentum, supported by fiscal buffers established since the pandemic and energy crisis [5] - Improvements in consumption and rising real wages, along with the transmission of interest rate cuts to the real economy, may lead to growth exceeding potential levels in Europe for 2026 [5] Group 5: Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicate a majority leaning towards gradual interest rate cuts, contingent on inflation continuing to decline as expected [6] - There is a cautious stance among some members regarding immediate rate cuts, emphasizing the need to observe data performance [6] - Divergent opinions on future interest rate paths and the timing of rate cuts suggest increased uncertainty in monetary policy for 2026, heavily reliant on forthcoming data [6] Group 6: Venezuela Oil Market Impact - The recent events in Venezuela have raised concerns about global oil price volatility, but the country's relatively small share in global oil production limits the potential impact [7] - Venezuela's daily oil production is around 1 million barrels, with exports of approximately 900,000 barrels, accounting for just over 1% of global oil output [7] - The geopolitical risks in Venezuela may lead to a release of oil capacity once tensions ease, but ongoing expansions by the U.S. and OPEC+ could continue to suppress oil prices [8]