黄金去年的疯狂难以复制？投行目标价现巨大分歧

Core Viewpoint - The survey by the Financial Times indicates that gold prices are expected to continue their historic upward trend into 2026, reaching a new high, although analysts predict a slowdown in the pace of increase after a remarkable surge in 2025 [1] Group 1: Price Predictions - Analysts predict that gold prices, which surged by 64% in 2025, will rise nearly 7% by the end of 2026, reaching approximately $4,610 per ounce [1] - The most optimistic forecast comes from Nicky Shiels of MKS Pamp, who anticipates gold prices could reach $5,400 per ounce, representing a 25% increase [2] - The average predicted price for gold at the end of 2025 was underestimated, with actual closing prices significantly higher at $4,314 compared to the predicted $2,795 [3] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Continued demand from emerging market central banks and investor interest in safe-haven assets are expected to drive gold prices in 2026 [2] - Lina Thomas from Goldman Sachs notes that if investors diversify their asset allocations further, there could be significant upward potential for gold prices, with a potential year-end price of $4,900 [2] - Natasha Kaneva from JPMorgan forecasts that global central bank gold purchases will total around 755 tons in 2026, which, despite being lower than previous years, could still support prices approaching $6,000 by 2028 [3] Group 3: Diverging Opinions - There is a significant disparity between the most optimistic and pessimistic forecasts, with a $1,900 difference between the highest and lowest predictions [3] - The most pessimistic outlook from Rhona O'Connell of StoneX suggests that gold prices could drop to $3,500 due to a crowded market environment [4] - Factors such as declining jewelry demand and the anticipated end of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle are cited as potential downward pressures on gold prices [4][5]