Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-05 02:51Core Viewpoint - From January 1, 2026, a consumption tax will be fully levied on naphtha in the circulation link, significantly increasing production costs for enterprises [1] Group 1: Tax Policy Impact - The consumption tax will be applied to naphtha supplied internally, mutually supplied, and directly supplied for the production of ethylene and aromatic products, leading to increased transaction costs for chemical raw materials [1] - The tax policy will not apply to naphtha that is self-produced and used by enterprises, nor to mutual supply and direct supply for ethylene and aromatic production [1] Group 2: Price Changes - Following the policy adjustment, the price of naphtha for internal supply, mutual supply, and direct supply is expected to rise to approximately 7,000 yuan per ton from the previous price of 4,230 yuan per ton [2] - The consumption tax paid can be refunded, but the increased financial pressure and operational costs will still be significant for enterprises [2] Group 3: Production and Supply Dynamics - In 2025, China's naphtha production is projected to exceed 190 million tons, with market circulation estimated at only 4.5 to 5 million tons, indicating that most naphtha produced will be for self-use or internal supply [2] - The internal supply, mutual supply, and direct supply of naphtha are expected to be around 35 million tons in 2025, all of which will be subject to the new consumption tax [2] Group 4: Strategic Responses - To mitigate increased operational costs, companies are likely to enhance their naphtha yield and invest in hydrogen cracking and other facilities to optimize production parameters [3] - Companies may also increase external procurement or imports of naphtha, although imports are limited by quotas and geopolitical uncertainties [3][4] - The diversification of raw material sources for steam cracking facilities may lead to an increase in the proportion of other raw materials used due to rising processing costs for naphtha [4]