2026世界经济展望 | 全球经济复苏在关键路口徘徊

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is at a critical crossroads, with a potential slowdown in recovery expected by 2026, characterized by weakened momentum, increased risks, and intertwined challenges [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a decrease in global economic growth rate to 3.1% in 2026, down by 0.1 percentage points from 2025, with developed economies expected to grow at 1.6% and emerging markets at 4.0% [5][6] Trade and Financial Stability - Global trade faces severe challenges, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasting a drop in global merchandise trade growth rate from 2.4% in 2025 to 0.5% in 2026, nearly stagnating [5][6] - The contraction in global demand and the rise of trade protectionism are significant factors contributing to the slowdown in international trade [6] Fiscal Policy Trends - Global fiscal policies are expected to continue expanding, with IMF projecting that fiscal deficits in developed economies will rise to 4.9% of GDP and 5.9% in emerging markets by 2026 [7] - Governments face challenges in fiscal consolidation due to weak economic growth and political pressures, leading to a gradual adjustment strategy [7] Monetary Policy Divergence - Central banks are entering a phase of highly differentiated and uncertain monetary policy paths, with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan taking cautious approaches, while the Federal Reserve's policy direction remains a core source of global uncertainty [8] Financial Risks - The overall risk in international financial markets is rising, with interconnectedness increasing the likelihood of a "butterfly effect" in risk transmission [9] - The credit foundation of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds is under continuous erosion, raising concerns about global financial stability [9] Inflation Outlook - Despite a downward trend in global inflation in 2025, uncertainties regarding inflation prospects will increase in 2026, with CPI growth rates projected at 4.2% globally, 2.5% in developed economies, and 5.3% in emerging markets [9][10] - Major economies like the US face potential inflation rebound risks due to previous unilateral tariff policies and political pressures on monetary policy independence [10] China's Economic Role - In 2026, China is expected to contribute approximately 30% to global economic growth, maintaining its role as a stabilizing force in the global economy [10]