陶冬：2026年全球经济五大悬念

Economic Overview - The unexpected events in 2025 included Trump's presidency reshaping economic policies and the largest rise in various financial assets since 2009, with stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals all increasing significantly [1] - The economic uncertainty is expected to decrease in 2026, with the basic economic conditions in the US, Japan, and Europe continuing from 2025, supported by fiscal deficits and a stabilizing job market [1] US Economic Trends - The US economy is exhibiting a K-shaped recovery, where high-income individuals benefit from wealth effects while low-income groups face rising living costs, leading to a downgrade in consumption [2] - Job creation is slowing, with new jobs averaging around 50,000 per month, nearing the recession threshold set by the Federal Reserve [2] - The "Inflation Crisis" is highlighted, indicating that while the economy is growing, many Americans feel the pressure of stagnant wages and rising prices [2] Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve is facing significant changes in leadership, which could impact future policy directions and independence [3] - Inflation is stagnating, and while there are calls for lower interest rates, the Fed must balance political pressures and employment concerns [3] - The Fed's monetary policy in 2026 is anticipated to be more accommodative, potentially leading to a significant reduction in interest rates [4] Fiscal Capitalism and Global Trends - The world is entering a new phase of fiscal expansion, with governments increasingly responding to voter demands for economic stimulation during downturns [6] - The independence of central banks is diminishing, leading to excessive credit issuance and potential inflation, while wealth inequality continues to grow [7] Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices surged in 2025, with gold rising by 65% and silver by 149%, driven by central bank purchases and ETF investments [8] - The demand for silver is expected to increase due to industrial applications, particularly in AI and renewable energy sectors [8] AI Investment Landscape - The AI sector is experiencing significant investment, but sustainability of this investment is in question, with potential slowdowns expected in 2026 [10] - The focus in AI may shift from model development to practical applications, indicating a new phase in the industry [10][11] - China's AI model downloads have surpassed those of the US, indicating a shift in the global AI landscape, with different approaches to development and funding [11]