2026年的实体商业，会不会更难？

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges facing the retail and consumption sectors in China, predicting that while a collapse is unlikely, conditions will become more difficult for most businesses in 2026 [3][30]. Group 1: Market Trends - The overall retail sales in China grew by 4% year-on-year from January to November 2025, indicating a positive trend in consumption [4]. - However, the growth is not perceived as strong by many, as it does not follow familiar patterns [5]. - The growth rate in the first half of 2025 was higher than in the second half, with monthly data since June showing a decline [6]. Group 2: Regional Disparities - Rural areas and smaller cities are experiencing higher growth rates compared to urban centers, with urban retail growth lagging behind the national average since July 2025 [7]. - Provinces like Hainan and Henan are leading in growth, while wealthier provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu are underperforming [8]. - Beijing has been in a negative growth zone, with a year-on-year decline of 3.1% as of November 2025 [9]. Group 3: Consumption Patterns - Retail growth is outpacing dining, and online sales are growing faster than offline, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [11]. - The top three categories for retail sales above designated limits are communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture, driven by government subsidies [12]. - The growth is concentrated in areas where many businesses are not adept at operating, leading to increased pressure on traditional commercial projects [10][14]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Despite the challenges, some investors are successfully identifying opportunities in sectors with strong price-performance ratios and emotional consumption [17][18]. - A report by Nielsen IQ indicates that 50% of consumers expect their financial situation to improve by early 2026, up from 45% in 2024, suggesting a growing optimism [20]. - The luxury goods sector is seeing a resurgence, with brands like LVMH expanding aggressively in major cities [21][23]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - The article highlights a trend where consumers are willing to spend money for experiences and value, leading to a more fluid consumption pattern [25]. - Projects that fail to attract consumer interest risk being overlooked or failing entirely [26]. - The importance of creating emotional value for consumers is emphasized, as happiness becomes a more scarce commodity in a competitive market [28][29].