百利好丨金价飙升！再度突破4400美元

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant upward movement, with spot gold prices surpassing $4,400 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2026 and heightened geopolitical tensions that are fostering safe-haven demand [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold rose by 1.59% to $4,400.530 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.55% [1]. - The rise in gold prices is primarily attributed to the growing market anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3]. Group 2: Upcoming Events and Data - Key upcoming events include the potential rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index from January 8 to 14, which may lead to technical adjustments in gold and silver positions, with estimated sell-off volumes potentially accounting for 9% of total silver holdings and 3% of total gold holdings [3]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll and unemployment data for December, set to be released on January 9, is expected to significantly impact gold prices [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Recent tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, including military actions and diplomatic statements, are contributing to the rise in safe-haven demand for gold [4]. - The situation is further complicated by ongoing drone attacks in Russia, attributed to Ukraine, which adds to the overall geopolitical uncertainty [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy indicate a 17.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January, with an 82.8% chance of maintaining current rates. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 44.1% [4]. - The dual influence of monetary policy expectations and safe-haven sentiment is expected to continue driving gold prices in the near term [4].