2025港股IPO“超级周期”：锣不够敲，消费火爆

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has seen a significant increase in IPO activity in 2025, with 111 companies raising a total of 250.56 billion HKD, surpassing previous forecasts and reclaiming the top position in global IPO fundraising [2][4][7] - The consumer sector has emerged as a leading player in this capital influx, with over 23 IPOs in retail and consumption, indicating strong investor interest in this area [2][4] - There is a noticeable market differentiation, where leading companies attract significant capital while second-tier brands face challenges, suggesting a return to rational valuation in the consumer sector [2][12] Industry Trends - The HKEX has experienced a surge in IPOs, with multiple companies listing on the same day, particularly in the consumer sector, which has seen a mini-peak in listings [4][5] - The second half of 2025 continued to see a robust listing pace, with major players from the new energy and technology sectors also entering the market [5][6] - The trend of "A+H" dual listings has gained momentum, with 19 new A+H companies listed, indicating a growing acceptance of this model among established firms [7][9] Market Dynamics - The current IPO boom is driven by a combination of policy support and the need for companies to address growth bottlenecks, with the regulatory environment in mainland China pushing firms towards Hong Kong [9][11] - The venture capital and private equity sectors are under pressure to provide exit opportunities, making the HKEX an attractive option for companies seeking to go public [10][11] - Companies are increasingly looking to the HKEX to enhance their global presence and access international capital, as seen with firms like Haidilao and Haitian Flavoring [18][19] Competitive Landscape - The competitive pressure in the domestic market is prompting companies to seek international capital markets, with successful IPOs providing a significant advantage in terms of funding and market positioning [11][12] - Leading companies like Mixue Ice City have set high benchmarks for capital efficiency and market performance, creating a "siphon effect" that pressures competitors [13][14] - The shift in valuation logic within the HKEX is moving towards profitability and core competitiveness, making it challenging for companies without solid financials to attract investment [16][17] Future Outlook - The HKEX is expected to maintain strong IPO momentum, with nearly 300 companies currently in the pipeline across various sectors, indicating robust future supply [7][9] - Companies must focus on building sustainable competitive advantages to thrive in an increasingly discerning market, as the evaluation criteria for IPOs become more stringent [20]