卡游港交所上市二度遭拒，对赌期限还剩7个月将何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The company, 卡游, faces significant challenges in its pursuit of a second IPO, having failed twice within six months, raising concerns about its business model and regulatory compliance [2][4][11]. Financial Performance - 卡游 reported a revenue of 10.057 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 71.3%, dominating 71.1% of the collectible card market in China [2][4]. - The company has a high dependency on its core consumer group, with 90% of its customers under 15 years old, leading to concerns about sustainability and ethical practices [5][7]. Business Model and Regulatory Issues - The business model heavily relies on minors, with 43.2 billion card packs sold in 2024 primarily to elementary school students, raising ethical and regulatory concerns [5][12]. - Complaints about minors' irrational spending have surged, with over 60,000 complaints on consumer platforms regarding excessive spending on cards [5][12]. - Regulatory scrutiny has intensified, with the company facing challenges in complying with guidelines that restrict minors from purchasing blind boxes independently [5][12]. IP Dependency and Risks - 卡游's revenue is heavily reliant on licensed IPs, with 86% of its income coming from IPs, particularly 73% from the Ultraman franchise, while its own IPs account for less than 3% [8][14]. - The expiration of 38 IP licenses in 2025 and 39 in 2026 poses a significant risk to future revenue, as increased licensing fees or termination of contracts could severely impact the business [8][14]. Governance and Management Concerns - The company reported a net loss of 1.242 billion yuan in 2024, primarily due to high share-based payment expenses, raising concerns about governance and the founder's compensation practices [9][14]. - The founder's significant control over the company, with over 85% family ownership, raises questions about the protection of minority shareholders' interests [9][14]. Industry Environment and Competition - The tightening regulatory environment and increased competition from companies like 泡泡玛特 and 52TOYS are further squeezing 卡游's market position [13][14]. - The overall collectible card industry is undergoing a regulatory reshuffle, with new restrictions on marketing and sales practices, directly impacting 卡游's revenue model [11][12]. Future Outlook - The impending deadline for the company's performance under the investment agreement adds pressure, as it must either pivot its business model or face significant financial penalties [2][18]. - The company's current trajectory suggests a lack of readiness for necessary transformation, with a focus on expansion rather than addressing core issues [18][19].