关注十年国债ETF（511260）投资机会，市场预期与政策博弈下的债市走向

Core Viewpoint - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has experienced a pullback of over 0.1%, with market expectations and policy dynamics influencing the direction of the bond market [1] Economic Indicators - The PMI significantly declined in October, indicating economic pressure, but improved slightly in November and surged to 50.1 in December, the highest since April, reflecting effective policy measures [1] - December's raw material inventory is at a historical low, suggesting a potential for restocking that may drive economic recovery [1] Bond Market Outlook - The target range for the ten-year government bond is set between 2-3%, with a central tendency around 2.5% [1] - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's ten-year government bond index, selecting bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 to 10 years [1] Fund Performance - Since its inception, the ten-year government bond ETF has consistently achieved positive annual returns over seven complete years from 2018 to 2024, positioning it as a potential asset allocation tool across market cycles [1] - As of the end of Q3, the fund reported a one-year return of 4.17%, a three-year return of 14.04%, a five-year return of 23.39%, and a cumulative return of 35.77% since inception [1]