Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-05 04:16Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector concluded 2025 with a structural rise, with 35 out of 42 listed banks experiencing gains, and the banking index rising by 12.04%, indicating strong defensive and allocation value [2][3]. Group 1: 2025 Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector exhibited significant structural differentiation, with the top ten stocks including Agricultural Bank (52.66%), Xiamen Bank (35.78%), and others showing gains over 20% [3][4]. - The market's focus shifted towards "certainty of returns" and "growth cost-effectiveness" amid an "asset shortage" backdrop, leading to a preference for certain banks [3][4]. Group 2: Core Drivers of 2025 Bull Stocks - Three main factors drove the performance of bull stocks: high dividends and low valuations supporting state-owned banks, regional economic vitality empowering small and medium banks, and asset structure optimization promoting value reassessment [4][5]. - Agricultural Bank led with a dividend yield above 5% and a price-to-book ratio exceeding 1, breaking the long-standing trend of state-owned banks trading below book value [4][5]. Group 3: 2026 Bull Stock Predictions - The banking sector is expected to maintain a "steady progress" operational trend in 2026, with key dimensions for identifying bull stocks including net interest margin improvement, business transformation growth, and stable asset quality [5][6]. - The predicted top ten bull stocks for 2026 include Agricultural Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Ningbo Bank, among others, with each having specific growth drivers [7][8]. Group 4: Key Factors for 2026 Predictions - Agricultural Bank is expected to continue its strong performance due to its county-level business advantages and low liability costs [7]. - China Merchants Bank is anticipated to see dual growth in performance and valuation, driven by its wealth management transformation and strong asset quality [8]. - Ningbo Bank is positioned to benefit from regional economic vitality and diversified non-interest income growth [8][9]. Group 5: Structural Trends and Risks - The banking sector is likely to experience a dual rise in performance and valuation, supported by improved net interest margins and robust asset quality [12][13]. - However, structural differentiation risks may intensify, with some smaller banks facing challenges due to high regional economic dependency and single customer structures [12][13].