入局容易抽身难！特朗普或加剧美国“负担能力危机”

Group 1 - The U.S. military intervention in Venezuela aims to assert influence in the region, with President Trump indicating intentions to "take over" Venezuela [1] - If the U.S. government follows through on controlling Venezuela, it must prepare for potential impacts on consumer purchasing power and inflation risks for businesses and investors [2] - The diesel market is particularly vulnerable, as Venezuela and Colombia are key suppliers of heavy crude oil, which is essential for diesel production [2][3] Group 2 - Disruptions in Venezuelan oil production and exports could lead to significant increases in diesel prices, impacting energy and food prices in the U.S., especially in rural areas [3] - The Gulf Coast refineries in the U.S. are configured to process Venezuelan crude, with approximately 4% of their raw material inputs coming from Venezuela and Colombia [3] - A military intervention could lead to a scenario where international crude oil prices rise by $5 to $8 per barrel, with diesel retail prices potentially increasing to $4.15 to $4.50 per gallon, a rise of 15% to 25% from previous levels [6] Group 3 - The potential for a swift military resolution is low, as Maduro's regime remains resilient, and external factors may hinder a quick turnaround in oil production [5] - The diesel market is already under pressure due to low inventories and structural supply shortages, which could exacerbate price increases [7] - The trucking industry, heavily reliant on diesel, is particularly at risk, with significant operational costs tied to fuel prices, impacting profitability [8] Group 4 - The U.S. government is advised against large-scale military intervention in Venezuela, as it may worsen financial pressures on American consumers and increase costs in diesel-dependent states [9] - Alternative non-military strategies are suggested to weaken Maduro's regime and alleviate immigration pressures in the Americas [9]