中金：预计今年上市香港银行资本回报率维持10%至17%水平

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong bank stocks have performed well over the past year, primarily due to an unexpected increase in return on tangible equity (ROTE) [1] Group 1: Performance and Projections - CICC expects the capital return rate of listed Hong Kong banks to maintain a high level of 10% to 17% by 2026, with a dividend and buyback return rate of around 7% [1] - The market is anticipated to remain in a rate-cutting cycle this year, with the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicating potential rate cuts of 1 to 2 times in 2026 and 0 to 1 time in 2027, eventually reaching a level of 3% [1] Group 2: Interest Income Outlook - Given the expected narrowing of net interest margins due to rate cuts, along with slight asset growth, the decline in net interest income is projected to remain in the low single digits [1]