美元2026年“首考”：降息预期对决避险需求，谁能主宰Q1走势？

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is expected to face downward pressure in early 2026 due to anticipated monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve, labor market signals, and global risk sentiment [1][14]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rates - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut of 25-50 basis points in early 2026 [3]. - Such a dovish stance from the Fed is likely to weaken the dollar's yield advantage compared to other major currencies [4]. Group 2: Labor Market Data - Key labor market indicators, including non-farm payroll reports, unemployment rates, and wage growth, will influence expectations regarding the Fed's easing policies [5]. - Stronger-than-expected labor data may temporarily support the dollar, while weaker data could accelerate its decline [6]. Group 3: Risk Sentiment and Global Macro Factors - Positive risk sentiment, characterized by rising stock markets and easing global tensions, typically leads to a withdrawal of funds from safe-haven assets like the dollar [8]. - Developments in geopolitical situations, particularly the recent US intervention in Venezuela, may temporarily increase demand for the dollar as a hedge [9]. Group 4: Forex Flows and Reserve Dynamics - There may be structural changes in reserve holdings in early 2026, potentially reducing demand for the dollar [10]. - A shift in capital towards non-dollar assets could exacerbate the dollar's weakness in the first quarter [10]. Technical Outlook - Daily timeframe indicates a bearish trend with a downward correction structure; resistance is at 100.0-100.5 and support at 96.5-97.2 [10]. - Weekly timeframe shows a continued bearish trend, with a need to test the 95-96 support area for potential stabilization [14].