Ge Long Hui·2026-01-05 06:42Core Viewpoint - Morningstar has downgraded the fair value estimate of China Resources Beer by 3% to HKD 37.5, while also reducing the earnings forecast for 2025-2029 by 4-5% [1] Group 1: Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The stock is still considered undervalued, supported by a 4.4% dividend yield in 2025 [1] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the company's liquor business sales over the next five years has been revised down from 7% to 3%, indicating a weak industry demand outlook [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Pricing - The performance of the "Kweichow Moutai" brand portfolio in the high-end liquor market is expected to lag behind other brands [1] - Due to pressure on low-end beer prices, the price growth expectation for 2026 has been reduced by 2 percentage points [1] - Heineken's channel expansion remains the primary driver for volume growth in the beer business [1]