国盛证券：反内卷带来行业拐点 光伏新技术引领突围

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the domestic photovoltaic (PV) installation continues to show a "steady increase," with a cumulative installation of 252.87 GW from January to October, representing a 39% year-on-year growth, driven by a policy-induced rush in installations [1] - The strong performance has led the China Photovoltaic Industry Association to raise the annual installation forecast from 215-255 GW to 270-300 GW, with the overseas market, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, becoming a key growth driver [1][2] Group 2 - The supply side is undergoing a significant cleanup, with policies aimed at curbing low-price competition and tightening energy consumption standards, leading to a rebound in polysilicon prices, which have increased nearly 50% since July [3] - The industry is expected to reach a price stabilization range of 60-80 yuan/kg by 2026, with leading companies likely to see significant profit recovery [3] - Technological advancements, such as BC technology and the entry of perovskite into GW-level production, are expected to enhance the industry's competitive edge [3] Group 3 - In 2026, the focus will shift from scale expansion to efficiency, with opportunities arising from the industry's transition to high-quality supply and technological innovations [4] - Key companies to watch include GCL-Poly Energy (03800), Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), and LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH), among others, as they are positioned to benefit from price recovery and new technologies [4] - The perovskite technology is expected to create industrialization opportunities, with upstream material and equipment manufacturers being the first to benefit [5]