Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the new import beef quota system will alleviate domestic supply pressure, leading to an increase in domestic beef prices and enhancing the profits of livestock companies, particularly recommending YouRan Agriculture (09858) [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting from January 1, 2026, a safeguard measure will be implemented for imported beef in the form of "country-specific quotas and additional tariffs," with a 55% extra tariff on quantities exceeding the quota, lasting for three years [2] Group 3 - The safeguard measures were decided based on an investigation that found a causal relationship between the increase in imported beef and serious damage to the domestic industry, with a quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026, including specific allocations for Brazil (1.106 million tons), Argentina (0.511 million tons), Uruguay (0.324 million tons), and Australia (0.205 million tons) [3] Group 4 - In 2024, China's beef import volume is projected to be 2.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Australia accounting for 46.6%, 20.6%, 8.4%, and 7.4% of imports respectively; domestic beef production is expected to be 7.79 million tons, indicating that imports will exceed 30% of domestic production [4] - The tightening supply due to the reduction of breeding cows since 2025 has driven beef prices up, with the price recorded at 53.5 yuan/kg on December 26, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.4%; the quota system is expected to further optimize domestic supply and benefit domestic beef prices [4]
国元国际：对进口牛肉实施保障措施落地 建议关注优然牧业(09858)