香港银行：2026年资本回报率10%-17%，或迎降息周期

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong bank stocks have shown strong performance over the past year, primarily due to an unexpected increase in return on tangible equity (ROTE) [1] Group 1: Performance and Projections - The capital return rate for listed Hong Kong banks is expected to remain at a high level of 10% to 17% through 2026 [1] - Dividend and buyback returns are projected to be around 7%, indicating investment value [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - The market is anticipated to remain in a rate-cutting cycle this year, with the Federal Reserve's December dot plot indicating potential rate cuts of 1 to 2 times in 2026 and 0 to 1 time in 2027, leading to a rate drop to 3% [1] - In this context, the net interest margin for Hong Kong banks may continue to narrow, but the expected decline in net interest income is likely to remain in the low single digits due to slight asset growth [1]