就在1月8日！黄金白银将迎新年“第一劫”！

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is expected to enter a "super bull market" in 2025, with spot silver and gold experiencing annual gains of 148% and 65% respectively, marking the best annual performance since 1979, significantly outperforming tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), managing approximately $109 billion, will undergo annual weight rebalancing from January 8 to 14, which is anticipated to create significant selling pressure due to the explosive rise in precious metals prices in 2025 [3]. - Silver's current weight in the index is 9%, which is expected to drop below 4% in 2026, potentially triggering nearly $5 billion in silver position sell-offs [3]. - Analysts have differing expectations regarding the scale of the sell-off, with Morgan Stanley predicting $3.8 billion in silver and $4.7 billion in gold sell-offs, while TD Securities forecasts a more aggressive $6 billion in gold futures sell-offs [3]. Group 2: Short-term Volatility Risks - The combination of reduced liquidity and the release of key economic data is likely to heighten short-term volatility in precious metals [5]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data on January 9 will be critical in influencing gold prices [5]. - Recent market movements have shown a return of London gold prices to $4,400 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.75%, and spot silver rising by 4.15% to $75.844 per ounce, indicating ongoing market interest in safe-haven assets [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Despite facing short-term technical selling pressure, institutions remain optimistic about the long-term performance of precious metals, with geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve easing serving as core support [6]. - Venezuela's geopolitical situation, with an estimated gold resource potential of 3,500 tons, could provide temporary support for gold and oil prices if military intervention increases [6]. - The anticipated changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership and potential aggressive rate cuts are also focal points for the market, with a 77% probability of a rate cut by April [6].